You might have heard weather forecasters on TV talking about El Niño. What is El Niño? How will it impact the weather where you live? Can you blame El Niño for snow days and bad weather?
El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Niño means “the little boy” or “Christ child” in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas.
El Niño doesn’t happen every year. But it’s here in 2015, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The current El Niño has strengthened over the past few months, with a strong event likely during the late fall and early winter.
When an El Niño develops, it can start a chain reaction in the atmosphere influencing the weather in places much farther away from the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, including the United States. Just like the tides roll in and out, our climate warms during the summer and cools during the winter. An El Niño is like changing the level of those tides in some places. Perhaps they come in a little higher or earlier now, getting you wet before you have a chance to move your beach blanket to higher ground.
Meanwhile, heavy rains in the southern half of the U.S. may lead to flooding causing widespread damage to towns and communities. In addition, El Niño could elevate the risk for severe weather across the Southeast during winter.
Above-average late fall to winter temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S. might mean a milder winter. Which might mean fewer snow days, if you live there. Tropical systems in the Atlantic are also suppressed, which means there is less of a chance of a storm hitting the eastern half of the country.
It’s important to understand that a strong El Niño only favors these impacts, but doesn’t guarantee they will happen. Not every El Niño event leads to the same climate conditions. So don’t blame El Niño if you don’t like the weather. Bad weather happens every year— El Niño or not.
Look at the map above to see how El Niño might impact your weather. It is projected to be warmer in the northern Plains, dryer in the Midwest and wetter in the South. In addition, strong El Niños are often associated with heavy winter rains across California, which could bring much needed moisture to a region devastated by drought. But if the rain comes too quickly and heavily, it could lead to damaging landslides.
